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CON24_Article Background_Ice Management

Forecasting inventory

Event management requires diligent recordkeeping
By Mike McCarron
Forecasting inventory
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When your business hits the tipping point and starts to grow beyond your comfort zone, it’s time to monitor and manage your per-storm event inventories. Help your team to adopt a "measure everything" mindset so you can begin to accurately forecast the future. In our ever-changing and evolving businesses, we need to be able to look ahead and ensure we are as ready as we can possibly be for whatever nature has to throw at us.

Every storm is different, and starting now to baseline and data log every storm will result in huge benefits in the future. In this article I will review the key practices you need to help you and your team become "future forecasters."

Site measurements

When you first contract with a client, measure the square footage of all parking lot and sidewalk areas for the entire property. You will need to know the internal performance ratios of how much time and material is needed to complete all of the areas you are obligated to service.

Not all areas are the same. For example, steps can significantly reduce your efficiency per square foot compared to open and non-obstructed sidewalks. Loading docks are often tight, with cargo trailers and other obstacles on either side and have limited or practically non-existent space to efficiently work and turn around. Be sure to understand and document your company’s ability to perform effectively in each of these scenarios.

Figure out exactly how many square feet per hour your company can perform at a few basic ratios of snow, e.g., 1-3", 3-5", etc. With this data you can start to set levels of labor and material needed for each property.

Plan for a wrench in the plan

The materials needed for each event can change very quickly. As weather shifts and storms move from one side of town to the other, determining the types and amounts of necessary materials can be a difficult task to manage. Once you start to get baseline material amounts loaded into your tracking system, you will be able to accurately figure out how much material your team is using per event and how much will be needed in reserve for future events.

Next, you’ll need to start using multipliers to figure out specific amounts. For example, let’s say your baseline is 1.0 (100% of what’s needed) and you need 1.25 (25% over expected) as a result of a slow-moving storm that continues to hang over your target ZIP code. In this particular case you might actually go up to as high as 1.5 (50% over expected). This will completely change your ability to perform this work in a timely manner given the amount of salt or brine you planned for.

The threat of getting multiple back-to-back storms and having insufficient supplies is a real threat, and you always have to be prepared to handle what you agreed to in the contract. Will you have the extra supplies needed to adequately service the property? To be safe, always have a minimum of three average storm’s worth of materials at your facility to fend off any issues if things radically change during an overnight or multi-day weather event.

Document everything

The key to success (and satisfied clients) is to measure, monitor and log everything you do in a season. From a labor and material perspective, these data points will help you identify what is needed to get through each storm.

Once you have a baseline of your labor and material needs, you can change materials and adjust the labor after each event, as needed. You will start to see what’s really happening for each service location. Some of your jobs may be accurate, and the time and materials studies you have done for those are correct. Congratulations! But you will also discover that others are not accurate and could cost you time, money or even the contract. That’s where keeping a tight accounting on all of your contracts will help your company forecast for the labor and inventory you need for each event and each property. Take the time to review what you bid on and contracted vs. what the job actually required in order to be completed correctly. I guarantee you will gain valuable insight that you did not have before.

Site considerations

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The square footage of a site is just one part of the equation when determining how much labor will be needed to service it. Consider how much your efficiency will be reduced when working in tight areas or tricky locations like stairs or around loading docks.

Mike McCarron is president and founder of Image Works Landscape Management, a commercial landscape maintenance and snow removal firm in the Northern Virginia market. He has 20+ years of industry experience. Email him at mike@imageworkslandscaping.com.